Arms race

Batting wins games, pitching wins championships

It's an old chestnut, but it's never been more true than now. And right now the road to the 2011 championship must go through Philadelphia.

With the scary R2C2 rotation (Roy & Roy and Cliff & Cole, geddit? No, I did not come up with it), the Phillies have arguably the best rotation in baseball. Some pundits are already calling it the best in history...I'd rather wait and see.

The Yankees have now missed out on Lee twice, first in the 2010 trade period where he ended up leaving the Mariners for the Rangers and now when choosing Phillies over the Yankees.

Whilst it's refreshing to see that on the surface a player chose factors other than money, it's not quite true. Lee's contract per year with the Phillies is actually approx $1-2m more than the Yankees apparently offered, although 2 years shorter.

However, it is interesting to see the other factors influencing Lee. Did the clash between fans and Mrs.Lee during the ALCS have an impact?

Did Lee's relationship with Carlos Ruiz, the Phillies catcher influence the decision? Tim Kurkjian certainly thinks so.

Seth Livingstone of USA Today goes through some of the reasons Lee ended up in Philly and not Texas or New York.

The Red Sox rotation is one of the few, if healthy and playing to potential, that could compete with the Phillies. Lester remained at the ace level in 2010 and Clay Buchholz approached it. John Lackey has yet to warrant his $82m contract and Josh Beckett had a horrible year after signing a contract extension.

Daisuke showed on occasion brilliant form, such as his flirt with a no hitter in Philadelphia in May, and sometimes horrible form, as when giving up 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings in Baltimore....also in May.

If Lackey can show his Angels form and Beckett can have an average career year (15 wins w a sub 4 ERA) then the Sox rotation would be close to the Phillies.

However, and this is for a later post, in the field and at the plate the Red Sox have taken a massive step up.

Finally, on a different note, for every Cliff Lee there are many, many Robert Pearsons.

The Gap

Divorce is never an easy "out", regardless of the alternatives. Whether it's in our personal life or a divorce of less intimate proportions, a departure will always create a gap.

Steven Page of Barenaked Ladies fame decided 18 months ago, together with the rest of the band members I presume, that it was time to depart from a 20 year relationship. Steven's life had taken many turns over the previous years; he had left his family, moved to upstate NY, found a new partner, lost a substantial amount of weight and finally gotten caught by the local law enforcers with banned substances.

One would suspect that the turmoil that was Steven's life led him to the conclusion that a clean break would be the best solution.

Sadly that's only in the movies. No option is an easy one when it comes to a big life decision.

I recently had the pleasure of seeing BNL perform at the Hammersmith Apollo. This was the 4th or 5th time I'd seen the band live, but the first time without co-founder Page.

Whilst the show was very enjoyable, funny and nostalgic (If I had $1m automatically takes me back to freshman year at University), you could both see and feel that the band was trying to find out how to fill the void left by Page.

Initially you can't, but with time it gets easier and easier.

Football, Umpires and other whines

The NFL is back, the MLB is in the middle of the pennant race (although my Red Sox have a 1.7 % shot at making the playoffs after tonight's win against the Rays) and the Premiership is in week 3.

This is truly the time of year when the sports fan needs more than 24 hours in the day. At least if he or she wants a decent nights sleep and a semblance of a social life.

Shockingly one NFL pundit has my beloved 49ers as the Super Bowl XLV (is that a shirt size?) winner in Arlington. I'm not sure I'll go that far, but the NFC West should be theirs for the taking.

As usual, the Niners fortunes rests on the shoulders of the QB. Alas, a team spoiled with not one, but two HOF QBs in the last 20 years now has to rely upon the last chance saloon member Alex Smith.

Yes, Smith played in an offence at Utah that highlighted his skills and diminished his flaws, but I am one of the few supporters around, or at least that's what it seems. When he replaced Shaun Hill in week 7 last season it brought a new dimension to the Niner offense. Obviously Hill's strenghts did not include a rocket arm, but his intangibles allowed opposing defenses to put 8 in the box and dare Frank Gore to run against them. With Smith, Vernon Davis and Crabtree they have to balance out the defense and protect against the deeper pass.

With a much improved o-line, stability with the offensive co-ordinator (Smith went through 4 in his first three seasons in the Bay Area) and one of the better supporting casts around plus a defense led by Patrick Willis the Niners might cause a few upsets this year.

The Seahawks are aging and under new leadership in Pete Carrol, the Cardinals lost not only Kurt Warner but also Anquan Boldin (welcome to triple coverage Fitzgerald!) and the Rams are....well, the Rams. Bradford will help them, but not this year.

Super Bowl champions might be a stretch and the road to Arlington clearly will go through Green Bay or New Orleans. An injury to Brees or Rodgers and the picture changes markedly....

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For years I've been complaining about the standard of refereeing in the Premiership (and in this years WOrld Cup!), but sadly the MLB is doing its best to catch up. CB Bucknor in last years ALDS, Joe West's need to be centre stage, a myriad of minor league call ups who struggle and finally one of the worst umpires of all time, Bob Davidson. Although I'll freely admit that my 7+ years of following baseball pales in significance with many fans, at least I can say that I have rarely seen a more arrogant, obstinate and incompetent umpire than Davidson.

Jim Joyce robbed the Tigers Galarraga of a perfect game earlier in the season when he blew an obvious call at first base. What did Joyce, who is considered one of the best, if not the best umpire in the league do? He almost broke down when he realised his mistake.

Davidson ruled a ball fair ball foul that lost a game for the Marlins, and in the process of backing his call changed the rules of physics. Video replay show that the ball bounced fair approx 3 feet in front of the third base bag and again bounced fair another 3-4 feet past the bag. What did he do? He went the other way from Joyce and said after the game:

I was right on top of it and it was wide of the bag, that's all. I had it foul," Davidson said. "In my opinion, where it goes over the bag, you can't tell. After a bounce, it came an inch or two on the fair side, but ... it was very close. But I'm right there. I know what I saw.

So the ball is fair, then in mid air shifts 3 inches into foul, passes the bag foul and then curves back to land fair? Both Barry Zito and Albert Einstein would have been impressed with those physics...

You can see for yourself here:

"Balking Bob" (for the frequent balks that only he sees) is down right horrible and if the MLB had any guts they would kick him out now.

After being ejected by Davidson in a 1993 game, Philadelphia catcher Darren Daulton said of the ump: "He's one of those impact umpires. In my opinion the game was on ESPN and he couldn't wait to suit up and make an impact. He's one of those guys where you go into his house, there's lots of pictures of himself and none of his family."

I think that pretty much sums it up. When I took my umpire certification the instructor told us: "The best umpires are the ones nobody remembers". I suspect Davidson and Joe West never heard that.

As a counter point, Ed Hochuli, voted as the best referee in the NFL, famously blew a call in a 2008 game between the Chargers and Broncos when he ruled a fumble by Jay Cutler an incomplete pass, which ended up costing the Chargers the game.

Hochuli responded to the situation, writing,

Affecting the outcome of a game is a devastating feeling. Officials strive for perfection – I failed miserably.

Apparently he also replied personally to each of the myriad of complaints he received from aggreived fans.

If a player or a coach screws up, he'll possibly find himself in the minors or fired. If a MLB umpire screws up, he'll just ump the next game as if nothing happened. There needs to be some accountability among the men in black too...

Of course now we'll just wait for the next blown call in the Premiership and start the whining again....

Witnessing history...pt 2

Yet again Lady Luck gave me her blessings and I managed to stumble upon history in sports terms for the second time. No, not another no-no, but this time the major league debut of a certain 100 mph+ phenom.

On yet another visit to the girl, now in D.C, we experienced a very cool VIP treatment at Camden Yards as the Lester led BoSox crushed the increasingly hapless Orioles.

Camden Yards was the 7th MLB stadium I visited (after Fenway, Old Yankee Stadium, Old Tiger Stadium, Wrigley Field, Citifield and Oakland Coliseum) and I must admit after Fenway probably my second favourite (Wrigley was prior to me knowing anything about baseball, so I probably didn't appreciate it the way I would if I was to return...).

With a pretty decent fanbase and a glorious stadium it is a shame to see the product Peter Angelos puts out each year. Some people think Showalter might turn them around, but I think there has to be a change of ownership before that will happen.

We also had one spare evening in DC, and on a whim I'd bought some cheap (compared to Fenway) tickets for me and the Girl to see the Nats. I'd looked at the rotation and the schedule and was hoping for a miracle.....

...and we got it!

A jam packed stadium and Stephen Strasburgh striking out 14 Pirates was as good as it gets in the nation's capital in terms of baseball!

Amusingly, the electronic scoreboard's K counter only goes to 12.....not that the Nat's had been close to using that prior to Strasburgh!

Time

Again time has been my enemy. A summer filled with World Cup, injuries, baseball and other events have yet again prevented me from posting with any semblance of regularity.

As usual I hope to do better....

World Cup

Well, what can you say? Opening game was magnificent with the Vuvuzelas creating a massive sound wave....and quickly turning incredibly annoying.

The Jabulani ball was hardly the best product Adidas has produced. I can't remember more than a handful of decent free kicks on target but a massive amount of wild kicks reminding me of the Fulham song....(to the music of That's Amore) "If the ball hits your eye and you sit in row Y, that's Zamora..."

Talking about Zamora, it was indeed a shame his injury prevented him from playing for England - I doubt he would have done worse than any of the so called England "strikers".

Hand on heart, only two or three England players could leave the tournament with their heads held high; Ashley Cole (as much as it hurts me to admit that), James Milner (excluding his first 35 mins) and possibly Steven Gerrard...although even Stevie had some sub-par performances.

For all the talk of the South American revolution, Brazil were dire, Argentina realised they needed defenders as well and only Uruguay performed well above expectation - although I personally think that Suarez foul should not result in a penalty kick but an automatic goal. Ghana played with technique, passion and flair and deserved to go through, despite the fearsome pairing that was Forlan and Suarez.

Obviously France and Italy need to completely re-build, as do England. Germany seem to always manage to do their rebuilds inbetween tournaments. Clearly there is a difference of priorities between the Premier League and the English national side with none of the current top three goalkeepers being starters in the Premiership.

Thankfully football won over hooliganism in the final, although this time on the pitch. The Dutch for all their technical players should not whine about Howard Webb's performance, instead they should be happy that they weren't the first ever finalist to have 3 players sent off. Both De Jong and Van Bommel should have had early showers on the day.

Baseball

There have been many parallels between my personal baseball ventures and the Red Sox 2010.

I've missed all but parts of 5 games due to three different injuries (although I was able to manage my team to the pennant and the top seed going into the playoffs!), at the same time the Red Sox have had a throw back year. As in throw back to 2006 with a myriad of injuries.

This year Ellsbury (twice), Beckett, Wakefield, Dice-K, Cameron (twice), Varitek, Martinez, Pedroia, Youk (season ending), Lowell, Hermida (DFA after DL), Delcarmen, Okajima have all spent some or considerable time on the DL. (Did I miss anyone?)

It's actually easier to count the starting position players not to go on the DL; Beltre, Scutaro and (shock!) Drew.

We've had such world renowned players as Kalish, Nava, Hall & McDonald roaming the outfield and Hall, Cash, Molina (not one of the famous trio of brothers) and a finally healthy Lowrie in the infield and behind the plate.

That the Sox are still only 3 1/2 game out of the wild card is astonishing. With Ellsbury, Pedroia and Varitek back over the next few days (or week) and the rotation starting to pick up, the Sox have a decent shot at making the playoffs.

Oh, and my post in May about Dice-K? This season he's 8-3 with a 4.09 ERA and since July he's 3-0 with a 3.53 ERA. More importantly, he's becoming more economical with his pitches, having gone into or completed the 8th inning 4 starts this year.

As witnessed in his most recent start, he does have a tendency to start nibbling if he gets hit well as he was by Snider, causing him to become more passive. Hopefully he can continue to be the aggressive pitcher he can be, forcing batters to swing instead of walking them. Still, he's got an almost 1.78 K to BB ratio this year and a career second best 7.8 hits per 9 innings in 2010. His WHIP has dropped from 1.87 to 1.33.

One more game against the Jays, then off to a tough Texas trip.

There's still hope....

Bikkuri pt. 2

I admit, I've always had a soft spot for Daisuke Matsuzaka.

I loved the acquisition in 2007, and while he could be frustrating to watch as he tried to nibble the corners when he lost confidence in attacking the batters, I liked his stutter-step delivery.

Naturally I was as frustrated as all other Red Sox fans when he blew the 2009 season due to overuse in the WBC and his subsequent lying about his injury. However, having a decent idea about the Japanese mentality of pride and performing through pain, I never thought of him as selfish, quite the opposite.

Many a times have I gotten very riled up by so-called Red Sox "fans" posting one mindless comment about him after another;

"$100m? Waste of money"

"Trade him, he's useless"

or my personal favourite;

"Release him, we can do better"

Ok, let's take a look at Dice-K in a Red Sox uniform:

1. Myth no. 1 - "He's paid $100m". Actually, no. Red Sox paid Seibu Lions $51.11m for the posting rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka and the son of Satan...eh, Scott Boras. As much as Boras wanted to keep the posting cost and the contract separate, Epstein and co played hard ball and ended up with a contract paying Dice-K $52m over 6 years, an average of 8.6m per year. Compare that to Jeff Suppan, who was signed 3 months prior to Dice-K, and would also be considered a no.3 pitcher, who is on $10.5m per year (and has performed much, much worse.
   
   
2. Myth 2 - "He's useless, trade him." - In the two year span of 2007-2008, Matsuzaka went 33-15 with a 3.72 ERA, second best in wins in the AL after Roy Halladay (and one more win than Josh Beckett over those two years). Clearly Dice-K is not a no.1 starter, he simply does not pitch enough innings for that, averaging 186 innings over those two years, but to make a fair comparison 2009 has to be removed from the equation - obviously partly because of Dice-K's own actions, but many pitchers have lost seasons and effectiveness due to injury. After his DL stint in 2009, he went 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA in four starts in September and October.
   
   
3. Myth 3 - "Release him". See, this is the one that irks me the most. Why would the Red Sox release an at least serviceable pitcher? For those "fans" who make such statements, releasing a player does not mean the team stops paying him. If Dice-K was released, any other team with the best waiver position could pick him up and only pay him the league minimum. The Sox would still have to pay more than $8m per year until 2012. Despite John Henry's obvious wealth, even the Sox wouldn't do something as stupid. And remember, his salary would still count against the luxury tax, even if he was released. (See Kei Igawa being stuck in AAA for the Yankees).

Dice-K started well for 5 innings in his season opener against the O's until he unravelled in the 6th inning. Another poor one inning, this time the first inning, against the Halos in his second start put a black stain on his record, but he buckled down and managed to pitch 5.1 innings for the win.

Yesterday he showed signs that his mechanics and perhaps more importantly his mental approach is getting close to top form as he allowed 1 run, 3 hits and no walks in one of his best starts ever against the Blue Jays.

Whilst he still has to prove through consistent performances that he's back in good form, I predict he'll win 15 games for the Sox with a 4 ERA. A hell of a lot better than you'd get for pretty much any pitcher on the market for that money.

Last chance saloon

David Ortiz's struggles were well documented in 2009, both on this blog, and in mainstream press.

The normally restrained Boston press has now of course started with their campaign again after Big Papi's poor start to this season.

Whilst he clearly needs to perform consistently over a longer period, like the Indians in Major League, he's threatening to climb out of the cellar.

After an abysmal April (.143 avg/.238 OPB/ .286 SLG), he's actually shown signs of heating up.

He can now turn on mid 90s fastballs, as shown by the ground rule double off Burnett's 95mph pitch against the Yankees on Sunday, and that two of his four home runs have been to left-center. In the past, when he kept his weight back and his hands inside he was able to drive towards the Green Monster, something that he was completely unable to do in April.

Whilst it's a small sample, his May so far reads much happier;

25 AB, 7 hits, 1 double, 3 HR for a .280/.321/.680

This is about .100 pts higher slugging than Youk, showing signs of the power the team has been lacking.

If he can continue this for another 2-3 weeks he might not be released or taken off the 25 man roster in June...and it seems I'm not the only one to think so.

Finally, Dallas Braden, the A's pitcher with the 17-23 lifetime record, a high 80s fastball and 4.5 ERA is known for something else than calling A-Rod a douche.

On Sunday he pitched the 19th perfect game in baseball history. 27 batters, 27 outs. No walks, no hits, no reached on error. Not one baserunner all game.

This is as rare a feat as you'll see in baseball. Compare to the 672 triple plays and 289 times a player has hit for the cycle, you realise how incredibly difficult this is to do, as you have to rely on 8 other players to play a perfect game too.

Congrats to Dallas, now take the high road and shut up about A-Rod.

Decade

It's been a very long time since my last post....for my limited number of readers, I apologise.

Although we're technically not in the new decade (for the more detail oriented minority), we can still take a look at the decade.

Sports and life wise this was a mixed decade for myself and my favourite teams.

The Boston Red Sox entered the Noughts 82 years removed from their last championship and came out the other side with two championships in four years. After decades and decades of futility, the club finally had owner, a front office and players to consistently contend year after year. Sure, they'd been close before, in '86 and '78, but winning years were often mixed with years of missing the playoffs. The foundation was built before the current owners, with Pedro and Manny coming under the managerial reign of Dan "Twilight years" Duquette, but the home grown talent and missing pieces came with Epstein, Henry and co.

Even though the Rays have taken a monumental leap up and now look like they have at least another year or two of strong performances in them before they might struggle to keep key players, they draft and develop young talent very well.

Liverpool entered the decade ten years removed from a title and despite winning the Champions League in one of the best ever football games in 2005 and several domestic cup wins, they still search for that first ever Premiership title.

Sadly, compared to the Red Sox, the LFC front office situation is very unstable. Two American owners sinking in debt, an uncertain future both for the manager, Rafa Benitez, and the two star players, Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard makes for an uncomfortable summer and a very poor outlook on the next season.

San Francisco 49ers entered the decade having seen their 16 year division title streak come to an end the previous year and a very uncertain ownership situation as Eddie DeBartolo had been suspended by the NFL for ties to gambling companies in Louisiana.

Now owned by DeBartolo's sister Denise, and run by her husband Dr.John York, the Niners started the decade ok. With the retirement of Hall of Fame QB Steve Young, the Niners under coach Steve Mariucci had a successful 2002 campaign with Jeff Garcia as the starting QB, only losing to eventual SB winners Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game.

However, that would be the final post season game of the decade for the Niners and the final game in charge for Steve Mariucci, who for reasons only known to "Dr" York was deemed no longer suitable.

3 coaches and numerous co-ordinators later the Niners finally seem on the verge of playing competitive football again, now under the helm of no-nonsense coach Mike Singletary, HOF linebacker with the 1980's Chicago Bears.

And I have tickets to see them at Wembley on October 31st!

As for me, my decade was probably as tumultuous as the teams I follow. Post-grad degree, house purchase and multiple life changing events put me at a similar position of the Niners - after years of turmoil I look forward towards the light at the end of the tunnel.

Turn the page

Now that we're well into year '10 instead of '09, we can look forward to yet another opportunity of a fresh start.

As I wrote about a year ago, we can all look forward to new personal, professional and sports fan opportunities. But, and there's always a but in there, whilst some things change, some others stay the same. Cash rich clubs in whatever sport will always have an advantage over lesser blessed competitors. Also, stability usually brings more success even when there is cash available (see: Raiders, Oakland and Dame, Notre).

The shrewdest operators find a gap and exploit it. After years of big signings, the Yankees think that tweaks are enough (and they might very well be right) to go for 28 championships. The Yankees drained their farm system in the eternal chase for the next WS title, but ended up with a high priced ageing team on the decline (think Roger Dorn) and no prospects.

Brian Cashman then decided enough was enough, kept his talent while spending wisely on the high price agents available, such as Mark Teixeira (surely $10m would not have hurt Mr. Henry in the long run...), creating a second coming of the Yankees of the 90s with Joba, Cano and Hughes creating a young foundation of home grown talent to build upon.

The Red Sox have gone the same route with Pedroia, Youk, Lester, Bard and Ellsbury (with Anderson and Kelly soon to take the leap from the Minors), but some of their recent free agent acquisitions have left a little bit to be desired. Whilst Lackey was a solid purchase, the jury's still out on Beltre and Cameron.

This was, according to a sloppy quote from Epstein, a "bridge year", but now that the RSN have tasted sweet victory, the patience among fans is short.

However, as for my beloved LFC, this might not be the year when the Sox lift the WS trophy. Time will tell