Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Bikkuri pt. 2

I admit, I've always had a soft spot for Daisuke Matsuzaka.

I loved the acquisition in 2007, and while he could be frustrating to watch as he tried to nibble the corners when he lost confidence in attacking the batters, I liked his stutter-step delivery.

Naturally I was as frustrated as all other Red Sox fans when he blew the 2009 season due to overuse in the WBC and his subsequent lying about his injury. However, having a decent idea about the Japanese mentality of pride and performing through pain, I never thought of him as selfish, quite the opposite.

Many a times have I gotten very riled up by so-called Red Sox "fans" posting one mindless comment about him after another;

"$100m? Waste of money"

"Trade him, he's useless"

or my personal favourite;

"Release him, we can do better"

Ok, let's take a look at Dice-K in a Red Sox uniform:

  1. Myth no. 1 - "He's paid $100m". Actually, no. Red Sox paid Seibu Lions $51.11m for the posting rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka and the son of Satan...eh, Scott Boras. As much as Boras wanted to keep the posting cost and the contract separate, Epstein and co played hard ball and ended up with a contract paying Dice-K $52m over 6 years, an average of 8.6m per year. Compare that to Jeff Suppan, who was signed 3 months prior to Dice-K, and would also be considered a no.3 pitcher, who is on $10.5m per year (and has performed much, much worse.

  2. Myth 2 - "He's useless, trade him." - In the two year span of 2007-2008, Matsuzaka went 33-15 with a 3.72 ERA, second best in wins in the AL after Roy Halladay (and one more win than Josh Beckett over those two years). Clearly Dice-K is not a no.1 starter, he simply does not pitch enough innings for that, averaging 186 innings over those two years, but to make a fair comparison 2009 has to be removed from the equation - obviously partly because of Dice-K's own actions, but many pitchers have lost seasons and effectiveness due to injury. After his DL stint in 2009, he went 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA in four starts in September and October.

  3. Myth 3 - "Release him". See, this is the one that irks me the most. Why would the Red Sox release an at least serviceable pitcher? For those "fans" who make such statements, releasing a player does not mean the team stops paying him. If Dice-K was released, any other team with the best waiver position could pick him up and only pay him the league minimum. The Sox would still have to pay more than $8m per year until 2012. Despite John Henry's obvious wealth, even the Sox wouldn't do something as stupid. And remember, his salary would still count against the luxury tax, even if he was released. (See Kei Igawa being stuck in AAA for the Yankees).
Dice-K started well for 5 innings in his season opener against the O's until he unravelled in the 6th inning. Another poor one inning, this time the first inning, against the Halos in his second start put a black stain on his record, but he buckled down and managed to pitch 5.1 innings for the win.

Yesterday he showed signs that his mechanics and perhaps more importantly his mental approach is getting close to top form as he allowed 1 run, 3 hits and no walks in one of his best starts ever against the Blue Jays.

Whilst he still has to prove through consistent performances that he's back in good form, I predict he'll win 15 games for the Sox with a 4 ERA. A hell of a lot better than you'd get for pretty much any pitcher on the market for that money.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Last chance saloon

David Ortiz's struggles were well documented in 2009, both on this blog, and in mainstream press.

The normally restrained Boston press has now of course started with their campaign again after Big Papi's poor start to this season.

Whilst he clearly needs to perform consistently over a longer period, like the Indians in Major League, he's threatening to climb out of the cellar.

After an abysmal April (.143 avg/.238 OPB/ .286 SLG), he's actually shown signs of heating up.

He can now turn on mid 90s fastballs, as shown by the ground rule double off Burnett's 95mph pitch against the Yankees on Sunday, and that two of his four home runs have been to left-center. In the past, when he kept his weight back and his hands inside he was able to drive towards the Green Monster, something that he was completely unable to do in April.

Whilst it's a small sample, his May so far reads much happier;

25 AB, 7 hits, 1 double, 3 HR for a .280/.321/.680

This is about .100 pts higher slugging than Youk, showing signs of the power the team has been lacking.

If he can continue this for another 2-3 weeks he might not be released or taken off the 25 man roster in June...and it seems I'm not the only one to think so.

Finally, Dallas Braden, the A's pitcher with the 17-23 lifetime record, a high 80s fastball and 4.5 ERA is known for something else than calling A-Rod a douche.

On Sunday he pitched the 19th perfect game in baseball history. 27 batters, 27 outs. No walks, no hits, no reached on error. Not one baserunner all game.

This is as rare a feat as you'll see in baseball. Compare to the 672 triple plays and 289 times a player has hit for the cycle, you realise how incredibly difficult this is to do, as you have to rely on 8 other players to play a perfect game too.

Congrats to Dallas, now take the high road and shut up about A-Rod.

Monday, May 10, 2010

Decade

It's been a very long time since my last post....for my limited number of readers, I apologise.

Although we're technically not in the new decade (for the more detail oriented minority), we can still take a look at the decade.

Sports and life wise this was a mixed decade for myself and my favourite teams.

The Boston Red Sox entered the Noughts 82 years removed from their last championship and came out the other side with two championships in four years. After decades and decades of futility, the club finally had owner, a front office and players to consistently contend year after year. Sure, they'd been close before, in '86 and '78, but winning years were often mixed with years of missing the playoffs. The foundation was built before the current owners, with Pedro and Manny coming under the managerial reign of Dan "Twilight years" Duquette, but the home grown talent and missing pieces came with Epstein, Henry and co.

Even though the Rays have taken a monumental leap up and now look like they have at least another year or two of strong performances in them before they might struggle to keep key players, they draft and develop young talent very well.

Liverpool entered the decade ten years removed from a title and despite winning the Champions League in one of the best ever football games in 2005 and several domestic cup wins, they still search for that first ever Premiership title.

Sadly, compared to the Red Sox, the LFC front office situation is very unstable. Two American owners sinking in debt, an uncertain future both for the manager, Rafa Benitez, and the two star players, Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard makes for an uncomfortable summer and a very poor outlook on the next season.

San Francisco 49ers entered the decade having seen their 16 year division title streak come to an end the previous year and a very uncertain ownership situation as Eddie DeBartolo had been suspended by the NFL for ties to gambling companies in Louisiana.

Now owned by DeBartolo's sister Denise, and run by her husband Dr.John York, the Niners started the decade ok. With the retirement of Hall of Fame QB Steve Young, the Niners under coach Steve Mariucci had a successful 2002 campaign with Jeff Garcia as the starting QB, only losing to eventual SB winners Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game.

However, that would be the final post season game of the decade for the Niners and the final game in charge for Steve Mariucci, who for reasons only known to "Dr" York was deemed no longer suitable.

3 coaches and numerous co-ordinators later the Niners finally seem on the verge of playing competitive football again, now under the helm of no-nonsense coach Mike Singletary, HOF linebacker with the 1980's Chicago Bears.

And I have tickets to see them at Wembley on October 31st!

As for me, my decade was probably as tumultuous as the teams I follow. Post-grad degree, house purchase and multiple life changing events put me at a similar position of the Niners - after years of turmoil I look forward towards the light at the end of the tunnel.